part 2 .... CANADA INVESTMENT SERIES ---
Tilray, Inc. (TLRY) 109.54+0.55 (+0.51%)
TLRY will release its earnings on November 13th after the market closes. With its market capitalization at $10.22 billion and extremely negative forward earnings projections, TLRY is not ready for prime time. Yes, FJC’s commentaries suggested a BUY in the $30 range and to “SELL at the market” when the stock hit $300 was a great conclusion, which was based exclusively on momentum. (see commemtaries) After the noise has settled, on a value basis TLRY is worth $45 a share -- a reduction from our previous price range of $75. The issue is valuation and its ability to raise more cash to support operations. With TLRY focusing on growing the stuff as “farmers” and the focus on pharmaceuticals, the company’s business model lacks substance to grow the bottom line. Earnings per year are the name of the game, and TLRY will not hit the black marker until 2025, if at all.
Brendan Kennedy, CEO of TLRY has been talking the talk with more noise than substance, claiming that marijuana companies can hit a $100 billion valuations with a $150 billion global cannabis industry. Never will happen with the current business model of most cannabis companies.
The numbers speak for themselves: Book value below $1.00 per share, 78 million shares outstanding with a 10 million share float suggests stock liquidity is marginal at best and the company's demands for more capital, the dilution factor will create weaker stock prices. Without true earnings in sight, TLRY looks like a giant wave about to collapse.
Valuation Measures
Market Cap (intraday) 10.22B
Enterprise Value 3 11.28B
Trailing P/E N/A
Forward P/E 1 -457.38
PEG Ratio (5 yr expected) N/A
Price/Sales (ttm) 364.24
Price/Book (mrq) 233.56
Enterprise Value/Revenue 401.85
Enterprise Value/EBITDA 6 -639.11
Financial Highlights
Fiscal Year
Fiscal Year Ends Dec 30, 2017
Most Recent Quarter (mrq) Jun 29, 2018
Profitability
Profit Margin -80.83%
Operating Margin (ttm) -69.49%
Management Effectiveness
Return on Assets (ttm) N/A
Return on Equity (ttm) N/A
Income Statement
Revenue (ttm) 28.07M
Revenue Per Share (ttm) 0.37
Quarterly Revenue Growth (yoy) 95.20%
Gross Profit (ttm) 11.38M
EBITDA -17.65M
Net Income Avi to Common (ttm) -22.69M
Diluted EPS (ttm) -0.3030
Quarterly Earnings Growth (yoy) N/A
Balance Sheet
Total Cash (mrq) 25.33M
Total Cash Per Share (mrq) 0.27
Total Debt (mrq) 54.74M
Total Debt/Equity (mrq) 155.36
Current Ratio (mrq) 0.62
Book Value Per Share (mrq) 0.47
Cash Flow Statement
Operating Cash Flow (ttm) -6.1M
Levered Free Cash Flow (ttm) N/A
Trading Information
Stock Price History
Beta (3Y Monthly) N/A
52-Week Change
S&P500 52-Week Change 7.59%
52 Week High 3 300.0000
52 Week Low 3 20.1000
50-Day Moving Average 126.3443
200-Day Moving Average 89.2619
Share Statistics
Avg Vol (3 month) 8.46M
Avg Vol (10 day) 3.9M
Shares Outstanding 76.48M
Float 10.02M
% Held by Insiders 0.03%
% Held by Institutions 2.16%
Shares Short (Oct 30, 2018) 3.24M
Short Ratio (Oct 30, 2018) 0.68
Short % of Float (Oct 30, 2018) 20.02%
Short % of Shares Outstanding (Oct 30, 2018) 3.48%
Shares Short (prior month Sep 27, 2018) 2.38