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TLRY IN TROUBLE


part 2 .... CANADA INVESTMENT SERIES ---

Tilray, Inc. (TLRY) 109.54+0.55 (+0.51%)

TLRY will release its earnings on November 13th after the market closes. With its market capitalization at $10.22 billion and extremely negative forward earnings projections, TLRY is not ready for prime time. Yes, FJC’s commentaries suggested a BUY in the $30 range and to “SELL at the market” when the stock hit $300 was a great conclusion, which was based exclusively on momentum. (see commemtaries) After the noise has settled, on a value basis TLRY is worth $45 a share -- a reduction from our previous price range of $75. The issue is valuation and its ability to raise more cash to support operations. With TLRY focusing on growing the stuff as “farmers” and the focus on pharmaceuticals, the company’s business model lacks substance to grow the bottom line. Earnings per year are the name of the game, and TLRY will not hit the black marker until 2025, if at all.

Brendan Kennedy, CEO of TLRY has been talking the talk with more noise than substance, claiming that marijuana companies can hit a $100 billion valuations with a $150 billion global cannabis industry. Never will happen with the current business model of most cannabis companies.

The numbers speak for themselves: Book value below $1.00 per share, 78 million shares outstanding with a 10 million share float suggests stock liquidity is marginal at best and the company's demands for more capital, the dilution factor will create weaker stock prices. Without true earnings in sight, TLRY looks like a giant wave about to collapse.

Valuation Measures

Market Cap (intraday) 10.22B

Enterprise Value 3 11.28B

Trailing P/E N/A

Forward P/E 1 -457.38

PEG Ratio (5 yr expected) N/A

Price/Sales (ttm) 364.24

Price/Book (mrq) 233.56

Enterprise Value/Revenue 401.85

Enterprise Value/EBITDA 6 -639.11

Financial Highlights

Fiscal Year

Fiscal Year Ends Dec 30, 2017

Most Recent Quarter (mrq) Jun 29, 2018

Profitability

Profit Margin -80.83%

Operating Margin (ttm) -69.49%

Management Effectiveness

Return on Assets (ttm) N/A

Return on Equity (ttm) N/A

Income Statement

Revenue (ttm) 28.07M

Revenue Per Share (ttm) 0.37

Quarterly Revenue Growth (yoy) 95.20%

Gross Profit (ttm) 11.38M

EBITDA -17.65M

Net Income Avi to Common (ttm) -22.69M

Diluted EPS (ttm) -0.3030

Quarterly Earnings Growth (yoy) N/A

Balance Sheet

Total Cash (mrq) 25.33M

Total Cash Per Share (mrq) 0.27

Total Debt (mrq) 54.74M

Total Debt/Equity (mrq) 155.36

Current Ratio (mrq) 0.62

Book Value Per Share (mrq) 0.47

Cash Flow Statement

Operating Cash Flow (ttm) -6.1M

Levered Free Cash Flow (ttm) N/A

Trading Information

Stock Price History

Beta (3Y Monthly) N/A

52-Week Change

S&P500 52-Week Change 7.59%

52 Week High 3 300.0000

52 Week Low 3 20.1000

50-Day Moving Average 126.3443

200-Day Moving Average 89.2619

Share Statistics

Avg Vol (3 month) 8.46M

Avg Vol (10 day) 3.9M

Shares Outstanding 76.48M

Float 10.02M

% Held by Insiders 0.03%

% Held by Institutions 2.16%

Shares Short (Oct 30, 2018) 3.24M

Short Ratio (Oct 30, 2018) 0.68

Short % of Float (Oct 30, 2018) 20.02%

Short % of Shares Outstanding (Oct 30, 2018) 3.48%

Shares Short (prior month Sep 27, 2018) 2.38


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