Article

THE NEXT BIG THING

April 15, 2018

 

How many times have investors heard the phrase?

 

Usually, the hype for a stock is just that --- flimflam! A “pump and dump” affair to trap the little guy while allowing a few insiders to reap the rewards. Failure for the less informed is inevitable because the promoter has an extremely short-time horizon and personal intent to win any way possible; illegal or otherwise. Meanwhile, simple investors buy-in on expectations for the “next big thing” only to be frustrated with a capital loss.

 

What’s the solution?

 

Be smart and never assume anything when your money is involved. It begins with your mindset: intuition, business sense, and information. Never move on an investment until you understand the economic dynamics of the industry or sector in which your targeted stock is in. Focus on sectors that have long-term prospects and your constant search to discover “the next big idea.” Never be impatient – holding paper at a loss because you pushing the button too early is a common mistake. Since timing is everything, triple-check every idea until your satisfied. And even then – use the Four Day Rule. If after four days, your idea is still part of your mindset, commit by hitting the bottom. Even after that, keep a constant vigil on your investment.

 

In the ‘40s – it was plastics; ‘50s --industrials; ‘60s – electronics; ‘70s – computers; ‘80s – pharmaceuticals; ‘90s – consumer sector; 2000s plus – social media, etc.  If your investment strategy followed the commentaries of the time, your returns on capital in any ten-year period would have been no less than 2500%.

 

Discovering today’s game changer is what to search for.

Technology is the place to look. Within the next ten years technological advancements will alter the world in astonishing ways. It may even transform what it means to be human. In the ensuing 20 years – the world will still be dominated by the doings of nation-states. The central issue will be the rise of the east with disunion between a broad American sphere of influence in Europe, the Middle East and South Asia, and a Chinese sphere in East Asia and Africa. The US will face new challenges from former peripheries. The large, educated populations of Poland, Turkey, Brazil and their neighbors will come into their own, which will benefit the Russia card. Meanwhile, China will economically  dominate Africa.

 

Nevertheless, America will probably remain the world's major power. The critics who wrote off the US during the depression of the 1930s and the stagflation of the 1970s lived to see it bounce back to defeat the Nazis in the 1940s and the Soviets in the 1980s. America's financial problems will surely deepen through the 2010s, and the 2020s will not be any easier. Massive political turbulence in China and its conflict with the US will define part of the next 25 years – and there will be a period when the world trading and financial system become less transparent.

 

Artificial intelligence and cloud capitalism will rule basic decisions, especially in the financial markets and social media sectors. The results mean more robots and complete dependence on technology.  The information platforms will operate on a nanoscale, creating a new world of cheap and omnipresent computing, in which privacy will never be possible.

 

Nanotechnology will make solar cells more efficient and satisfy the needs of a growing world population and allow the entire world to be fully integrated. On the sub-cellular level, nano-medicine will change human health and longevity, allowing us an average lifespan of 250 years. As a barometer of such an event will be the prevention and cure of Alzheimer's, a possibly within the next eight years.

 

Navigating through the mass of “the next big idea” is a daunting task. With so many options and a vast array of potential scenarios, each in its own right will transform the world and create substantial investment opportunities.  These ideas have the momentum already created by the large corporations. With vast resources, they have staked their claims for the future. The day is gone for the “little guy” working in his garage to step into the fray and be a winner with a good idea. The only solution is to find low-tech ideas that can be utilized as the basis for personal financial success.

 

A recent survey  found that of the 25-low-tech business, 21 had to do with direct services to consumers. i.e., Housing Clearing, Day Care, Lawn Mowing, Errand Services, Wedding Consulting, Dog Walking, Pool Clearing, Car Washing, House Sitting. These businesses may work, and the participants may be successful, but are they “the next big idea”?

 

With Subjective Probability Model - SPM and basic game theory algorithm, and after conducting over 275 investigative measurements, we determine the best low-tech business as an investment with a level entry factor of 8.3, with 10 being the highest score – meaning 83% success probability, is cannabis product wholesaling and distribution.

 

Cannabis product wholesaling and distribution is the best sector as a long-term investment of the nineteen segments considered. The next step is to find the investment vehicle that best fixes the sector on your terms.

 

Using the SPM algorithm, we made following assumptions, (1) five-year time horizon for approval of recreational cannabis in United States, Canada (on the agenda for approval in mid-2018), and 15 other nations introducing legislation and regulations, and (2) at least 5% of the combined population of the 17 countries are irregular cannabis users, gross sales per year will be $US 42 billion.

 

Based on this projection, the sale of cannabis products is the best low-tech investment since the repeal of the production and sale of alcoholic beverages.

 

Part II – Public companies to consider.

 

 

 

 

 

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