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AS PREDICTED – JERSEY VOTES NEXT YEAR

December 17, 2018

 

No marijuana law this year or a Christmas present for Governor Phil Murphy as the legislative leaders in New Jersey are unable to design the “perfect” bill.

The issues are taxing and how to regulate the new industry — nothing new here.   Again, our SP-Game Theory Model algorithm was on point.

 

What Cannabis New reported on the subject:

CLOSE TO THE FINISH LINE?

September 25, 2018

Based on the use of the Subjective Probability Model (SPM) algorithm, it projects that the bill will not change past in September, and the likelihood of passage will happen in early February of 2019. At issue is local backlash with votes in November.

 

AS PREDICTED – LEGAL WEED VOTE DID NOT HAPPEN

September 26, 2018

As for New Jersey, the SPM algorithm predicts that February or March of next year will be the target date to legalize adult use and to authorize new retail stores in early 2021.  The issues for delay are not a dispute over taxes, set-asides for disadvantaged communities or regulations, but the sheer intricacy of the effort. Senior Nicholas Scutari, the Union County Democrat and main legislative sponsor of the legal marijuana bill understands the complexity and is diligent to ensure every aspect of the bill are carefully considered.

 

 

MORE NOISE FROM JERSEY …

October 17, 2018

Our analysis projects a different scenario. Because of the issues surrounds the mid-term elections in November and the “posturing of politicians,” the likelihood for the formal introduction of the bill will not happen until after the elections and be placed on the calendar in mid-January with approval in February 2019. 

 

NEW JERSEY IS ALMOST IN

November 27, 2018

As said by the  September 26, 2018 article entitled “AS PREDICTED – LEGAL WEED VOTE DID NOT HAPPEN,” our position still holds:
As for New Jersey, our SP-Game Theory Model algorithm predicts that February or March of next year will be the target date to legalize adult use and to authorize new retail stores in early 2020.  The issues for delay are not a dispute over taxes, set-asides for disadvantaged communities or regulations, but the sheer intricacy of the effort. ... The only "fly in the ointment" is Murphy's insistence for a rate higher than 12 percent. He initially counted on 25 percent to balance the 2019 budget.

 

We possess a unique analytical tool - SP-Game Theory Model algorithm – that can present a likely conclusion to events. No just to forecasting when the  New Jersey marijuana bill will become law, but a full range of assessments, which allows us to be frugal with our resources. In business “time is everything” – especially when or why a corporation allocates capital.


The cannabis industry is like liquid mercury –whatever you do or not do, it will seek its level in its own time and place.  Cannabis is an investor's mercury. In 1996, California became the first state to legalize medical cannabis, sparking a trend that spread to a majority of states by 2016. In 2012, Colorado and Washington became the first states to legalize marijuana for recreational use. When these events occurred  “crazy money”  acquired land, built elaborate indoor cultivation facility and hired “experts,” as it happened, to waste money. These circumstances are attributed to “consensus thinking.” The results are billions of dollars in capital investments, inflated values, and zero profits. Now business dinosaurs and disgruntled investors litter the business landscape.


Timing can be blamed. Only half true. It was the lack of sufficient facts and circumstances in designing a valid business model. All the money lost was based on the Consensus Business Model. The consensus-oriented decision-making (CODM ) model offers a detailed step-wise description of the consensus process. ... This model lets groups be flexible enough to make decisions (rely on misinformation)  when they need to, while still following a format based on the primary values of consensus decision-making. Not the right formula in an emerging industry. Subjective Probability Model would have been a better choice. Two examples prove our time:  After Prohibition and the collapses of the Soviet Union. CODM predicted that Prohibition "will destroy society."  The U.S.A. spent multi-trillions of dollars in military defenses to protect against a political force that would last 500 years. Well, history proved otherwise.


We applied the dynamics of our subjective probability model on a simple question – When will the state of New Jersey pass a  recreational marijuana law? --  to demonstrate the reliability of the algorithm.

 

 

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