With the 2020 presidential election nearing, Trump wants to get high.
Although Donald Trump is vocal on many issues, he has not shared his views on cannabis legalization. However, some believe that could change as we get closer to the election. Based on the conclusions reached by our proprietary SP+GTM algorithm, Trump will make cannabis legalization a vital election issue to win over young voters. In essence, by supporting cannabis, Trump may be able to incrementally broaden his appeal with swing voters without alienating his base.
Meanwhile, US-China trade tensions have affected US farmers. Tariffs on agricultural products, such as soybeans, tobacco, and cotton, have dragged down exports and US farm income. This crisis has impacted views on Trump in the farming community. A recent poll conducted by us confirms that farmers support for Trump had declined by 9 bases points.
Could Trump advocate cannabis’s legalization to win back farmers’ support? Possibly—the legalization of hemp has come to their rescue amid trade tensions.
Importance of cannabis legalization
Our analytics indiicate that regulated US dispensaries’ total cannabis sales stood at $9.8 billion last year. By 2024, the research companies expect cannabis sales to grow 20% compounded annually to reach $30 billion.
Legalizing cannabis could generate billions in tax revenue, which could be used to help small farmers and businesses affected by the trade war. Also, cannabis’s legalization could grow farm income and create new jobs. On June 8, the New York Post reported that the cannabis business could generate 175,000–215,000 full-time jobs this year. A pro-legalization stance by either side could also gain support from Millennials, who are often considered to be more open to marijuana. In 2017, Millennials comprised the largest part of the US workforce.
Performance of the cannabis sector this year
As continually predicted by SP+GTM algorithm, the cannabis sector has underperformed broader equity markets. Since 2014 our investment model was correct 100% of the time, saving our viewers millions of dollars and earning profits. For example, 19 articles were written exclusively on Tilray Inc. (TLRY) $25.85 - from a buy at $25 to a sale at $300; a short at $291 and cover at $84.50; a buy at $74.50 to a sale at $115; and a short at $95.75 which remains outstanding. If you "invested" and purchased 100 shares of TLRY at $25.85 or $2,585, and followed SP+GTM trade, your "invested capital"would be worth $325,934.
TLRY is not an isolated example - Since 2014 SP+GTM algorithm predicted, "Any public equity investment in a cannabis stock is a sucker bet with the potential of losing 50% or more of your money." How true? Of the top 100 public cannabis stocks trading on recognized outlets since 2014, not one is selling higher now than before on a fully capitalized basis.