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SP+GTM the “best guess” algorithm

September 17, 2019

 

... on the planet.

 

As part of our proprietary platform, we periodically implement the algorithm to identify unknown quantities and develop realistic models for the input to the program to ensure that each operation is effectively functioning. These tests are  applied to our  “best guess” analytics from categories outside the primary database – all things relating to cannabis - by taking current events to determine the likelihood of a specific incident.

 

Usually, the conclusions collected are internal exercises and only used to evaluate the data gathering elements of the platform. On a few occasions, we posted the results and send notices to the responsible parties declaring our findings.

 

One such incident was the April 15, 2019 blaze that nearly destroyed the 850-year-old Notre Dame cathedral and brought immediate scrutiny to whether adequate fire protection had been in place to safeguard a Gothic architecture gem visited by over 13 million people a year.

 

Background Information:

NOTRE DAME DE Paris is perhaps France’s most famous landmark: standing tall at the heart of the city for centuries, accepting the people’s reverence one day, then facing their rejection on another. Its history was forever changed Monday when a massive fire broke out causing the medieval structure's spire to collapse. The cathedral, which houses the crown of thorns relic, sits on the Île de la Cité, an island in the center of the Seine. The town was well-placed to control the passage of goods along the waterway and grew wealthy. By the 10th century, Paris was the center of an emerging new European power. Building Notre Dame took nearly two centuries from start to finish. The cathedral became a lifelong project for Sully. Work on the sanctuary and nave began first. In 1182, under the reign of the new king, Philip II, the high altar was consecrated. Sully was able to celebrate the first Mass in the cathedral but would die in 1196, nearly 150 years before the main structures of the cathedral would be finished in the 1300s. When the church was initially designed, the heavy lead roof called for thick, sturdy walls to support it, which limited the size of the windows and reduced the amount of natural light in the building. In 1220 the ceiling was reconceived with rib vaults, one of the great innovations of the Gothic style, that used intersecting stone ribs to brace the structure. As a result, less pressure was put on the supporting walls, and more windows could be featured. In the 1240s the Master of Works, Jean de Chelles—the first architect of Notre Dame whose identity is known—finished the nave and the two towers of the main (west) facade. Work began on the transept facades, which were completed by his successor, Pierre de Montreuil. During his tenure, de Montreuil oversaw the installation of new, bigger windows including the three rose windows in the northern, southern, and western walls. The final touches to the monument were put in place in the 1300s by master builder Jean Ravy, who was one of the first to employ another great Gothic architectural innovation: flying buttresses, exterior braces to help support the roof and walls. These arches allow the force imposed by the high ceiling to be transferred to the exterior, thereby leaving the interior walls clear of supports and enhancing the building’s majesty and grace. These structures can be seen along the sanctuary and have become one of Notre Dame’s most emblematic features. 

 

On 15 April 2019, just before 18:20, a structure fire broke out beneath the roof of Notre-Dame de Paris cathedral in Paris. By the time it was extinguished, the building's spire and most of its roof had been destroyed and its upper walls severely damaged; extensive damage to the interior was prevented by its stone vaulted ceiling, which largely contained the burning roof as it collapsed. Many works of art and religious relics were moved to safety early in the emergency, but others suffered some smoke damage, and some exterior art was damaged or destroyed. The cathedral's altar, two pipe organs, and its three 13th-century rose windows, suffered little to no damage. Three emergency workers were injured. Millions around the world watched in horror as the cathedral’s roof and spire succumbed to the flames that night and collapsed. 

 

What SP+GTM algorithm identified on April 15, 2019.

The April fire that engulfed Notre Dame contaminated the cathedral site with clouds of toxic dust and exposed nearby schools, daycare centers, public parks and other parts of Paris to alarming levels of lead. The lead dust came from the cathedral’s incinerated roof and spire, which contained about 460 tons of the dangerous metal, and it created a public health threat that stirred increasing anxiety in Paris throughout the summer.

 

On the 16th of April 2019, a letter was sent. 

 

Because the Notre Dame is a unique structure in France, we were unable to connect with the most responsible party since the officials' responsible were divided between city, regional and national officials. Therefore, we sent a letter to Cultural Services of the French Embassy, 972 5th Avenue, New York, New York 10075.

 

The letter stated in part: “Based on our proprietary Subjective Probability+ Game Theory Model (SP+GTM), we have identified a major health issue: Lead contamination caused by the  Notre Dame fire. We established that at least 550 tons of lead dust can contaminate 15 square miles from the cathedral site with clouds of toxic dust. It is imperative to announce a public health threat and take whatever actions are appropriate."

 

OUR “BEST GUESS” CONCLUSION

Subjective Probability+ Game Theory Model algorithm predicted the aftermath  of the April 15, 2019 incident, specifically the "lead issue."

 

note: Five months after the fire, French authorities have refused to fully disclose the results of their testing for lead contamination, sowing public confusion, while issuing reassuring statements intended to play down the risks.

 

 

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