Legalizing cannabis could be days away. Adult-use of marijuana in New Jersey is inevitable as Governor Phil Murphy makes good on a campaign promise. With his backing and Senate President Stephen Sweeney and Assembly Speaker Craig Coughlin all in favor for full legalization, the bill is very close to being inked. Possibly a year would be needed from Murphy’s signing a legalization bill to establish the guideline for legally purchased of marijuana in stores.

Opponents’ strategy is to attempt to derail the bill and push decriminalization as an alternative to creating a fully legal market for anyone over 21 to buy marijuana. The idea has support in some quarters of the Legislature, including Senator Ronald Rice, a Democrat from Newark who heads the Legislative Black Caucus, and Senior Ronald Rice, a Monmouth County Republican. Senate and Assemble bills to decriminalize marijuana have ten sponsors in total, all Democrats except Singer, but have failed to gain traction. Meanwhile, cannabis advocates acknowledge that a bill may pass by the end of September, which is Sweeney’s informal deadline. Don’t think so! Legislation bills have missed two other relaxed deadlines.

Based on the use of the Subjective Probability Model (SPM) algorithm, it projects that the bill will not change past in September, and the likelihood of passage will happen in early February of 2019. At issue is local backlash with votes in November.